Oh Nationalism: An Essay Questioning the Idea of a Nation

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True love calls sinners to repentance (Ps. 51:13 and James 5:20). Just after Brown's upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. (It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.)" [69] A few days later, Public Policy Polling released the first poll showing Brown in the lead, a result differing from Rasmussen's by 10 points. [70] Rasmussen's last poll on the race found Coakley with a 2-point lead, when she in fact lost by 5 points, a 7-point error. [71] Journalist Mickey Kaus said, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious New York Times, go with Rasmussen." [72] In 2010, Nate Silver of The New York Times ’ blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article "Is Rasmussen Reports biased?", in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias. [73] However, later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect." [74] He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model, [75] and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering. [76] Silver also criticized Rasmussen for often only polling races months before the election, which prevented them from having polls just before the election that could be assessed for accuracy.

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