A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Environment and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and weather switch, surroundings and assets fee on Geosciences, department in the world and lifestyles stories, nationwide study Council

This publication recommends the initiation of an "integrated" examine software to check the function of aerosols within the estimated worldwide weather swap. present realizing recommend that, even now, aerosols, essentially from anthropogenic assets, could be decreasing the speed of warming brought on by greenhouse gasoline emissions. as well as particular examine options, this e-book forcefully argues for 2 sorts of study application integration: integration of the person laboratory, box, and theoretical examine actions and an built-in administration constitution that includes the entire involved federal organisations.

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Extra info for A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

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Page breaks are true to the original; line lengths, word breaks, heading styles, and other typesetting-specific formatting, however, cannot be retained, and some typographic errors may have been accidentally inserted. Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. 1 W m-2 for soot based on Haywood and Shine (1995). 5 W m-2 may have discernible climatic effects if it is regionally inhomogeneous. A more complete summary of direct forcing estimates is provided later in this report.

Because of the climate system's inertia to such a transient forcing, only a small fraction of the possible equilibrium temperature change can be realized, unlike the case for long-lived GHGs. There are important differences in the status of observations for episodic stratospheric aerosol increases versus secular increases in anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. Because of the much longer residence time of particles at high altitudes, stratospheric aerosol increases typically become nearly global in extent (during the few years following an eruption) for tropical eruptions.

For indirect forcing, the most obvious unifying theme among available predictions is author admission of model inadequacies. If the observed decreased droplet size in Northern Hemisphere clouds relative to those in the Southern Hemisphere given by Han et al. , 1994). , 1974). 4 lists key anthropogenic aerosol types, their forcing mechanism (s), and brief assessments of current understanding. CONCLUSIONS It is our judgment that • climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is likely to be of sufficient magnitude to necessitate its representation in models of climate change over the industrial period; and • present estimates of anthropogenic aerosol forcing are sufficiently uncertain as to be inadequate to usefully represent this forcing in models of climate change over the industrial period.

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