Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union by Francisco Torres, Francesco Giavazzi

By Francisco Torres, Francesco Giavazzi

This quantity analyzes the ecu Community's transition to financial and financial union (EMU) within the mild of the agreements reached at Maastricht final yr. It derives from a convention held by way of the CEPR and the financial institution of Portugal, and contains between its participants a few famous educational commentators on eu integration. the problems addressed within the quantity contain: the connection among a typical forex and inflation convergence; the results of financial unification on Europe's more and more built-in monetary markets and financial platforms; and EMU's implications for the EC's long term progress.

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Sample text

The main concern about Stage II prior to Maastricht was its open-ended nature. The prospect that it might continue indefinitely, with successive reviews every two years failing to discover a majority ready to go to full EMU, would have proved deeply unsettling to any remaining confidence that the temporary institutional framework of Stage II could be relied upon to provide continuing stability. With the agreement at Maastricht on the modified procedure for 1998, an unforeseen degree of automaticity in moving to full EMU has been introduced.

As the future ECU becomes more visibly divorced from the present basket in the approach to full EMU, central banks will have to take a more explicit view on the fluctuations in the exchange rate and the interest rate on the ECU relative Critical notes on the Maastricht Treaty revisions 25 to the basket than the fairly detached attitude they have been able to permit themselves in 1990-91. The EMI will not issue ECU, as envisaged in some earlier suggestions for a common parallel currency approach to Stage II, yet this approach will not be totally absent from the transition.

The latter prerequisite would have offered considerable scope for procrastination, while the former, also stated in the Delors Report (para. 52), could hardly have avoided causing a major delay. At Maastricht, the Community finally clarified that it was not prepared to give any country a de facto capacity to veto the start of the transition. The softening of the criteria for entering Stage II which occurred over the year prior to the Maastricht meeting is an indication, of course, that the substantive content of Stage II gradually became less qualitatively different from Stage I than originally intended.

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