By William Webb
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Extra resources for Wireless communications : the future
The copper infrastructure, comprising twisted-pair copper cables and installed and owned by the state telephone company (the PTO), has formed the traditional access infrastructure for almost 100 years. For much of its life it was ill-suited to anything other than voice due to its low bandwidth (only around 3 kHz). However, the deployment of DSL in the 1990s changed this dramatically. This is currently delivering around 2 Mbits/s on the downlink and penetration levels are approaching some 30% in the developed world.
Although demand is growing for high-speed connections, this demand is generally well served by wired solutions. The possibility of a breakthrough technical solution seems remote, as discussed above and in more detail in Chapter 6. Perhaps in the longer term, if data rate requirements to the home rise above the levels that can be supported by ADSL, if fibre is not deployed more deeply into the network, and if technologies such as mesh have become established, then fixed wireless might become viable.
WiMax will arrive some five years after 3G is well established. This disadvantage in time is likely to be significant since without a compelling advantage few will choose to move from 3G to WiMax. However, those yet to deploy a system may find the choice balanced between the two technologies. Hence, our view is that WiMax will not have a major impact on the success of 3G. It is most likely to be deployed by those operators who have not yet rolled out 3G networks. ‘4G’ Cellular With the introduction of 1G in 1982, 2G in 1992 and 3G around 2004, the deployment of 4G some time around 2014–2018 might look like a fairly certain bet.